What is Feeling Lucky?
Feeling Lucky runs the entire valuation pipeline with sensible defaults — no questions asked. You get an intrinsic value per share in about 2 min, then you can drill into any assumption and tweak it.When to use it
- You want a quick sanity check on a stock price
- You’re screening multiple companies and need rough values fast
- You want to see the full output before deciding what to customize
How forecasts work
The DCF model projects four variables over a 10-year horizon. For each variable, Feeling Lucky auto-selects three things: a start value (year 1), an end value (year 10 target), and a convergence curve that controls the transition shape between them.The four forecast variables
| Variable | Start value (Year 1) | End value (Year 10) | Curve selection logic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | Earnings guidance (if available), else LTM growth rate | Industry 5-year average growth | Auto-classified based on gap size and growth trajectory |
| Operating margin | Earnings guidance (if available), else LTM EBIT margin | Earnings guidance long-term target (if available), else industry average | Auto-classified based on current vs. target gap |
| Sales-to-capital ratio | Company’s current ratio (LTM revenue / invested capital) | Industry average | Auto-classified; S-curve applied when current ratio is very far from industry |
| Cost of capital | WACC from cost-of-capital phase (industry average method) | Risk-free rate + base ERP | Auto-classified based on WACC premium over terminal |
Convergence curves
Rather than assuming a simple linear transition, the plugin selects from six curve shapes that model how real companies evolve:| Curve | When it’s auto-selected |
|---|---|
| Exponential Decay | High-growth company decelerating as market saturates |
| Standard S-Curve | Company with a moat — holds current level before converging |
| Rapid Deceleration | Very large gap between start and target, fast normalization expected |
| Linear | Moderate, steady convergence |
| Delayed Deceleration | Strong near-term visibility (e.g., backlog-driven revenue) |
| Step-Down | Rare auto-selection; typically chosen manually in Expert mode |
Other defaults
| Assumption | Default logic |
|---|---|
| Cost of capital method | Industry average WACC |
| Earnings guidance | Auto-fetched from latest earnings call transcript (if available) |
| R&D capitalization | Auto-detect: capitalizes if R&D > 5% of revenue |
| Lease conversion | Auto-detect: converts if operating leases > 10% of assets |
| Failure probability | Bond-rating-based if rated, age-based otherwise |
After the quick valuation
Once you see the result, you can:- Tweak any assumption — “What if year 1 growth is 15% instead of 12%?”
- Change a curve shape — “Use an S-curve for margins instead of linear”
- Switch to Expert mode — re-run with full control over all four variables
- Run diagnostics — Damodaran’s 6-step sanity check
- Generate a report —
.docxwith full breakdown